Forecasting

Short- and long-term forecasting are the acid tests of the validity of certain types of economic analysis. JPC forecasts at both the overall and specific industry levels for markets both here and abroad.

JPC's philosophy

Future ups and downs in an industry are likely to be determined to a greater extent by developments specific to that industry and the markets it serves than by the overall macro environment. Consequently, JPC takes a bottoms-up rather than a tops-down approach. While this limits the number of industries in which JPC can engage in forecasting, it produces better forecasts.

Short-run forecasts we use assess the presence and likely future emergence of disequilibrium. Long-term forecasts reflect the projections of the entrance and demise of market participants as well as an assessment of the likely technological and structural changes in an industry. They do consider the impact of the overall economic environment on specific industries, but industry specific factors are carefully evaluated and quantified.